Scenariestudier

Scenariestudier is a field within futures studies that focuses on the systematic development and examination of plausible future states to inform decisions in organizations and public institutions. A scenario is not a forecast but a coherent story about how the future might unfold under different assumptions, uncertainties, and driving forces.

Methods combine qualitative and quantitative tools, including scenario planning, cross-impact analysis, backcasting, trend analysis, modelling, and expert elicitation. Scenarios are typically developed through iterative processes, often involving workshops and stakeholder input to ensure credibility, relevance, and legitimacy.

The typical process involves identifying driving forces such as technology, policy, demography, and the economy; mapping key uncertainties; constructing several scenarios; analysing implications for actors and systems; and formulating strategic options and indicators for monitoring and learning.

Applications of scenariestudier span climate adaptation and energy planning, urban development, transportation, public policy, business strategy, and risk management. In academia and practice, they help compare policy choices, stress-test resilience, and illuminate long-term trade-offs, enabling decision-makers to prepare for a range of potential futures.

History and context: the practice has roots in futures studies and gained prominence through scenario planning in corporate strategy, notably by Shell in the 1970s. In Danish and Norwegian contexts, scenariestudier are used in universities and research institutes to explore uncertainties in public policy and industry sectors, often with an emphasis on regional and sectoral implications.

Strengths and limitations: scenariestudier illuminate uncertainty, foster long-range thinking, and support participatory decision-making. Limitations include subjectivity, dependence on assumptions, and the risk of biased or overly complex narratives. Rigorous methods, transparent documentation, and clear objectives help mitigate these issues.

Outputs commonly include scenario narratives, matrices, policy or investment recommendations, and monitoring dashboards that track key indicators over time.