backcasting

Backcasting is a planning and decision-making approach in which a desirable future outcome or goal is defined first, and the steps needed to reach that outcome are identified in reverse from the future to the present. Unlike forecasting, which extrapolates current trends forward, backcasting starts with a vision of a preferred future and assesses what must be true for that future to be realized.

The process typically involves articulating a clear, measurable target and a set of indicators, then constructing plausible pathways or scenarios that connect current conditions to the future state. Stakeholders participate to ensure legitimacy and comprehensiveness. Pathways can include policy instruments, technology deployment, behavior change, investment programs, and institutional reforms. The analysis examines required resources, risks, and trade-offs, and identifies milestones or backstop actions.

Backcasting is commonly used in sustainability planning, climate policy, urban and transport planning, and corporate strategy when transformative change is required. Its strengths include focus on ambitious outcomes, flexibility to explore multiple routes, and explicit consideration of long-term consequences. Critics note that the approach can be data-intensive, may rely on contested visions, and its success depends on political will and capacity to implement the identified steps. It is often combined with scenario planning and participatory methods to increase robustness.