scenario

A scenario is a narrative description of a possible sequence of events or a defined situation used to analyze, plan, or describe how things might unfold under certain conditions. It can refer to a fictional or hypothetical situation as well as to a framework for organizing real-world events. The term comes from Italian scena or scenario, meaning stage or scene, reflecting its origin in depicting imagined settings.

In literature and drama, a scenario outlines the plot, setting, and key actions that shape a story or performance. In planning and decision making, scenario planning develops multiple plausible futures to test assumptions, strategies, and resilience. It is widely associated with business and policy work, with practitioners constructing baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios to explore uncertainty and stress-test responses. The practice was popularized in part through corporate use, notably by oil companies in the late 20th century, to prepare for long-term shifts in markets, technology, and regulation.

In modeling and analysis, scenario analysis examines how outcomes vary under different conditions, such as changes in demand, prices, or external shocks. In finance and risk management, it supports portfolio assessment and stress testing. In software and systems engineering, scenario-based testing follows user-centered narratives to validate functionality under realistic sequences of actions. Across fields, a scenario is valued for clarity and falsifiability: it describes plausible futures without asserting that they will occur, guiding planning and communication in the face of uncertainty.