Scenarios

A scenario is a plausible sequence of events used to imagine or explore how something might unfold in the future or under certain conditions. Scenarios are not predictions; they are structured narratives that help people consider consequences and plan actions. They are used across fields such as business, government, engineering, and education.

There are different kinds of scenarios, including best-case, most-likely, and worst-case versions; exploratory scenarios that probe various drivers; and normative scenarios that describe a desired future state. In business and policy, scenario planning or scenario analysis involves developing multiple coherent stories based on distinct drivers such as market demand, technology change, policy shifts, or environmental conditions.

The typical process involves defining objectives, identifying key drivers and uncertainties, constructing coherent scenarios, evaluating implications for strategies, and identifying indicators to monitor. Methods range from qualitative narrative development to quantitative modeling, sometimes using probability weights or scenario matrices. Scenarios assist in risk management, project planning, policy analysis, and education, and are also used in fiction for world-building and in training simulations.

Limitations: Scenarios depend on assumptions and may reflect biases; they do not predict the future and should be used with other tools. They emphasize exploration of consequences rather than exact outcomes.