mostlikely

Most likely is a phrase used to indicate that, among several possible outcomes, one has the highest probability given the information available. It is commonly used in everyday reasoning, forecasting, and risk assessment to express what is expected to occur with the greatest degree of likelihood under current knowledge.

In probability theory, the most likely outcome corresponds to the mode of a probability distribution for a discrete variable, or to the point of highest probability density for a continuous variable. When data are used to estimate parameters, the term is closely related to maximum likelihood estimation, where the parameter values that maximize the likelihood function are described as the most likely given the observed data. In Bayesian statistics, one might refer to the most likely parameter value as the maximum a posteriori estimate, which incorporates prior information in addition to the data.

The phrase is also used in decision making and communication to convey conditional probability: statements about what is "most likely" depend on the assumed model and evidence. It is important to note that the most likely outcome is not guaranteed; a high probability does not ensure certainty, and occurrences can still differ from what is deemed most probable, especially when distributions are flat or multi-modal.

See also: probability, likelihood, maximum likelihood estimation, Bayesian inference, mode, argmax.