döntésanalízismódszer

Döntéselemzésmódszer translates to decision analysis method in English. It refers to a systematic approach for making informed choices, particularly when faced with uncertainty and multiple objectives. This methodology combines structured problem definition, identification of alternatives, assessment of potential outcomes, and evaluation of their desirability.

The core of decision analysis involves breaking down a complex decision into smaller, more manageable components. This often includes defining the objective or goal of the decision, identifying the available courses of action, and understanding the uncertain factors that might influence the outcome of each action. Probabilities are frequently used to quantify the likelihood of different events occurring, and utility functions may be employed to represent the decision-maker's preferences for different outcomes.

Common techniques within decision analysis include decision trees, which visually map out alternatives, chance events, and final outcomes, and sensitivity analysis, which explores how changes in input variables affect the decision. The ultimate aim is to select the alternative that maximizes expected utility or achieves the most favorable outcome based on the defined criteria and assessed probabilities. Decision analysis methods are widely applied in fields such as business, finance, engineering, and public policy to improve the quality and rationality of decision-making.