Döntéselemzésmódszer

Döntéselemzésmódszer translates to decision analysis method in English. It refers to a systematic approach for making choices, particularly when faced with uncertainty, multiple objectives, and complex consequences. This methodology aims to provide a structured framework for understanding a problem, identifying available options, evaluating their potential outcomes, and selecting the most favorable course of action.

At its core, decision analysis involves breaking down a complex decision into smaller, manageable components. This often includes defining the decision problem, identifying the objectives or criteria that will be used to evaluate options, and listing all feasible alternatives. A crucial step is forecasting the potential outcomes associated with each alternative, which may involve considering different scenarios and their probabilities.

Once outcomes are identified, they are assessed against the established objectives. This evaluation can involve various techniques, such as cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis, or expected value calculations. The goal is to quantify or qualitatively compare the desirability of each option based on its predicted performance against the criteria.

Finally, the analysis culminates in a recommendation or selection of the preferred alternative. This process is iterative and can involve sensitivity analysis to understand how changes in assumptions might affect the final decision. Decision analysis methods are widely applied in fields such as business, engineering, public policy, and healthcare to support informed and rational decision-making.