scenari

Scenari are the plural form of scenario in Italian, referring to sets of imagined futures or planned sequences of events used for planning, analysis, or storytelling. The term also appears in related languages with similar meanings, such as scenarii in Romanian and scénarios in French.

In planning and risk management, scenari are used to explore uncertainty by describing coherent stories that connect trends, drivers, and events over a defined horizon. They are not predictions but tools to test strategies, policies, or designs against different possibilities. Scenari help organizations consider how changing conditions might affect objectives, resources, and operations.

Typical structure includes driving forces (economic, technological, political, social), the time horizon, and the resulting narrative or sequence of events. Scenari are categorized as exploratory (probable futures under uncertainty) or normative (desired futures), and can include baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic variants. They are often developed in sets to illustrate a range of outcomes rather than a single forecast.

Common applications include business strategy, organizational resilience, public policy, climate and disaster planning, and software testing (scenario-based test cases). In climate research, multiple scenari illustrate possible pathways and impacts, helping policymakers compare mitigation and adaptation options.

Development typically follows steps such as identifying objectives, collecting drivers, defining assumptions, constructing narratives, deriving implications and metrics, and reviewing the scenari as new information emerges. Critics note that scenari carry subjective bias if assumptions are not transparent, and emphasize the need for broad participation and regular updating to remain useful.