Döntéselemzés

Döntéselemzés, often translated as decision analysis, is a systematic approach to making optimal choices under conditions of uncertainty. It involves identifying the problem, defining objectives, listing available alternatives, and assessing the potential outcomes of each alternative. A key component of decision analysis is the quantification of uncertainty, often through the use of probabilities, and the evaluation of potential consequences, typically expressed in terms of expected values or utilities.

The process commonly involves constructing decision trees or influence diagrams to visually represent the decision problem. These tools help in mapping out the sequence of events, decisions, and uncertainties. Döntéselemzés utilizes various techniques, including sensitivity analysis to understand how changes in input variables affect the outcome, and simulation methods like Monte Carlo analysis to model complex scenarios.

The goal of döntéselemzés is to provide a rational framework for decision-making, allowing individuals or organizations to understand the trade-offs involved and to select the course of action that best aligns with their objectives and risk tolerance. It is applied across a wide range of fields, including business, finance, engineering, healthcare, and public policy, to aid in complex strategic and operational decisions.