beslutningsanalysemetode

Beslutningsanalysemetode, or decision analysis method, is a systematic approach to evaluate options in situations with uncertainty and multiple criteria. The method combines quantitative and qualitative techniques to help decision-makers identify the best course of action based on objectives, preferences, and risk tolerance. It originated in the 1950s and 1960s within operations research and has since been applied in economics, public policy, environmental management, and business strategy.

A typical decision analysis process consists of several core steps. First, the decision problem is defined, including the decision maker’s objectives, constraints, and the context in which the decision will be implemented. Second, the relevant outcomes, uncertainties, and stakeholder preferences are identified. Third, a model is constructed—often a decision tree or a multi-criteria decision matrix—to represent the relationships between choices, states of nature, and payoffs. Fourth, quantitative methods such as expected value calculation, sensitivity analysis, or utility theory are employed to evaluate the model. Finally, the results are interpreted, and recommendations are communicated to stakeholders, often with discussion of trade-offs and robustness against changing assumptions.

Decision analysis methods are closely related to fields such as operations research, game theory, and risk assessment. Common variations include multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and Bayesian decision analysis. These variations differ mainly in how they handle multiple criteria, assign weights or probabilities, and incorporate stakeholder values. Best practice guidelines emphasize transparency in assumptions, validation of models, and active stakeholder engagement. Decision analysis has become an essential tool in evidence‑based policy making and strategic management, enabling more informed, accountable, and systematic decisions across a wide range of disciplines.