Prospectiva

Prospectiva, also known as futures studies or foresight, is an interdisciplinary field that studies possible, probable, and desirable futures to inform present decisions. It combines analysis of trends, uncertainties, and drivers with proactive planning to influence outcomes. Rather than predicting a single future, prospectiva explores multiple plausible futures and identifies strategies that perform well across them. It distinguishes descriptive forecasting from normative planning by considering not only what might happen but what should happen.

Origins and terminology: In the French tradition, the term prospective was popularized in the mid-20th century, emphasizing long-range planning and the exploration of multiple futures. In English-speaking contexts, a range of methods—scenario planning, horizon scanning, backcasting, and Delphi-style forecasting—are used to study futures in business, government, and civil society.

Methods: Horizon scanning identifies emerging trends and weak signals. Scenario planning builds structured narratives about different futures. Backcasting starts from a desired future and works backward to identify steps. Cross-impact analysis, trend analysis, and simulations help quantify interactions among drivers. Participatory workshops and roadmapping involve stakeholders in the exploration and decision process.

Applications: Prospectiva informs public policy, national and regional strategy, corporate strategy, technology forecasting, climate and environmental planning, and risk management. Outputs include scenario sets, roadmaps, policy recommendations, and indicators to monitor progress.

Critique: The field acknowledges uncertainty and criticizes overreliance on subjective judgments and value-laden assumptions. Its effectiveness depends on inclusive stakeholder involvement and transparent methods.