foresight

Foresight is a systematic process for anticipating future developments and preparing accordingly. It combines imaginative exploration with structured analysis to identify drivers of change, assess potential impacts, and evaluate risks and opportunities across different time horizons. Foresight emphasizes multiple plausible futures rather than a single forecast, aiming to improve decision-making under uncertainty and enhance organizational resilience and public policy planning.

As a field, futures studies emerged in the mid-20th century with contributions from government, academia, and industry. It broadened beyond traditional prediction to include scenarios, horizon scanning, and strategic planning. Early work in military and civil planning influenced later commercial and governmental use, leading to common methods such as scenario planning and cross-impact analysis.

Key methods include scenario planning, trend analysis, Delphi forecasting, cross-impact analysis, backcasting, and models of technology diffusion. Scenario planning presents diverse, plausible futures to test strategies; backcasting starts from a preferred future and works backward to identify steps; horizon scanning identifies weak signals of change.

Foresight informs long-range policy making, risk management, and corporate strategy. It supports climate adaptation, infrastructure planning, technology governance, and market development by revealing uncertainties and enabling preemptive actions.

Foresight is not a prophecy; outcomes depend on uncertain developments and decisions. Its value lies in structured thinking, transparency about assumptions, and regular updating as new information emerges.