Horizonscanning

Horizonscanning is a systematic, evidence-based process for monitoring and interpreting potential developments in the external environment that could affect an organization, sector, or policy issue. It aims to identify weak signals, emerging trends, and drivers of change across multiple domains to illuminate uncertain futures and inform strategic decision-making.

The practice involves defining scope, gathering information from diverse sources such as scientific literature, policy documents, news media, patents, industry reports, and social media, and then filtering and interpreting signals to identify plausible futures. Teams employ structured methods, including environmental scanning, trend analysis, cross-impact assessment, and scenario planning, often organizing signals into near-, mid-, and long-term time horizons. Domains commonly considered include technology, economy, politics, society, and environment.

Applications span government policy, public health and national security, as well as business strategy, R&D planning, and risk management. Horizonscanning helps identify threats and opportunities, prioritize investments, and stress-test plans against alternative futures.

Limitations arise from inherent uncertainty, data quality and availability, the noise of signals, and interpretive bias. Effective horizonscanning requires ongoing monitoring, transparent methodology, and explicit assumptions.

Related terms include environmental scanning and foresight. While related to trend analysis, horizonscanning focuses on weak signals and non-linear changes that may disrupt current trajectories rather than extrapolating present patterns alone.