Effekanalyse

Effekanalyse is a systematic assessment of the effects of an action, program, or policy. It aims to identify and understand the intended and unintended outcomes, assess their significance, and support evidence-based decision making. The analysis covers direct and indirect effects, short- and long-term impacts, and considers different stakeholder groups.

Common distinctions in effekanalyse include ex-ante versus ex-post analyses, quantitative versus qualitative methods, and questions of attribution versus contribution. A central goal is to establish a credible counterfactual or other basis for understanding what would have happened in the absence of the intervention, to support causal inferences about observed changes.

Methodologically, effekanalyse often relies on a theory of change or logic model to map how activities are expected to lead to outcomes. Data sources may include administrative records, surveys, experiments, or observational studies. Analyses can encompass cost-benefit analysis, impact evaluation using econometric or experimental designs, and scenario or sensitivity analyses to explore uncertainties and alternative assumptions.

The process typically involves defining the problem and objectives, specifying causal pathways, selecting indicators, collecting and analyzing data, estimating effects and uncertainties, and translating findings into recommendations for policymakers, program managers, or stakeholders. Transparency about methods, data limitations, and the robustness of conclusions is emphasized.

Applications span public sector policy appraisal, development and aid programs, health and environmental interventions, and corporate project evaluations. In many jurisdictions effekanalyse is required as part of ex-ante evaluations or impact assessments to inform funding decisions, improve design, and enhance accountability. Limitations include data gaps, attribution challenges, and potential biases, underscoring the need for rigorous methodology and clear communication of assumptions.