ETberegninger

ETberegninger, a term drawn from Danish and Norwegian usage, refers to the practice of estimating task and project durations by calculating expected times (ET) and associated uncertainties. The goal is to provide realistic schedules for planning, budgeting, and resource allocation, while acknowledging the inherent variability of work activities.

Methods commonly used in ETberegninger include simple averages, weighted averages, and probabilistic approaches. A widely applied technique is the PERT method, which derives an expected time from three duration estimates: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic. In PERT, ET is often calculated as (O + 4M + P) / 6. Other approaches include triangular or beta distributions, and increasingly, Monte Carlo simulations that propagate input uncertainty to produce probability distributions for project completion.

Inputs for ETberegninger comprise a work breakdown structure, task dependencies, available resources, historical duration data, and expert judgment. Outputs typically include an estimated duration for each task, a predicted project duration, identification of the critical path, and measures of uncertainty such as standard deviations or confidence intervals.

Applications span construction, software development, manufacturing, and service delivery, wherever schedules require quantified estimates and risk assessment. Limitations include biases from overconfidence or poor data quality, the impact of task interdependencies, and changing conditions that can invalidate initial estimates. ETberegninger are most effective when used with transparent assumptions, regular updates, and complementary risk management practices.