estimated

Estimated is the adjective form of estimate. An estimate is an approximate judgment or calculation of a quantity based on incomplete information, data, or prior knowledge. Estimation is the process of producing such a value. In everyday use, an estimated amount is reported when exact figures are unavailable or impractical to obtain.

In statistics, estimation is the practice of inferring unknown quantities from observed data. A point estimate is a single value used as a best guess, such as the sample mean as an estimate of the population mean or a sample regression coefficient as an estimate of the true effect. An interval estimate provides a range, such as a confidence interval or credible interval, within which the quantity is believed to lie with a given probability.

Estimators are rules or algorithms that map data to estimates. Common methods include maximum likelihood estimation and the method of moments for producing point estimates. In Bayesian statistics, estimation combines a prior distribution with data to form a posterior distribution from which estimates and uncertainty are derived. Performance is discussed in terms of bias, variance, and mean squared error; desirable estimators are unbiased, consistent, and efficient.

Estimation is used across disciplines, including science, engineering, economics, and public policy. Reports often use the word estimated to reflect uncertainty, as in “the estimated population is” or “the estimated time of arrival.” In data analysis and machine learning, predicted values are treated as estimates of true outcomes, and uncertainty can be quantified with intervals or probability scores.