scenárióelemzést

Scenárióelemzés, often translated as scenario analysis or scenario planning, is a strategic planning method used to explore and prepare for future uncertainties. It involves developing a set of plausible future states, known as scenarios, that represent different possible outcomes of key driving forces. The purpose is not to predict the future but to understand a range of potential futures and their implications for an organization, policy, or decision.

The process typically begins by identifying the core issue or decision to be analyzed and the relevant time horizon. Key drivers of change, both internal and external, are then identified. These drivers are often characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and potential impact. By considering the range of possible outcomes for these key drivers, a set of distinct and internally consistent scenarios are constructed. Each scenario represents a narrative of how the future might unfold.

Once scenarios are developed, their implications are analyzed. This involves examining how each scenario might affect the organization's goals, strategies, or objectives. This analysis helps identify potential risks and opportunities, test the robustness of current strategies, and inform the development of more resilient plans. Scenárióelemzés encourages flexible thinking and helps decision-makers anticipate and adapt to a wider range of future possibilities, rather than being caught off guard by unexpected events. It is a valuable tool for strategic foresight, risk management, and innovation.