scenarialogi

Scenarialogi is a field focused on the study, development, and use of scenarios to understand possible futures and inform decision making. It combines narrative techniques, systems thinking, risk assessment, and policy analysis to explore how different developments could unfold. The term is used in various European languages to denote the study of scenario-based thinking, and it is distinct from related practices such as scenography or screenwriting.

Central concepts include identifying driving forces, uncertainties, and potential impacts; and distinguishing between exploratory scenarios (what could happen) and normative or backcasting scenarios (what should happen). Methods often involve driver analysis, cross-impact analysis, morphological analysis, storytelling, and participatory workshops that incorporate diverse perspectives. Outputs emphasize coherent narratives and implications rather than mere data.

Typical workflow starts with clarifying purpose and time horizon, followed by gathering drivers, constructing scenarios, and testing their implications for objectives. Analysts then identify indicators, monitor early signals, and revise scenarios as conditions change. Common outputs include narrative scenarios, scenario matrices, policy recommendations, and strategic risk assessments.

Applications span business strategy, public policy, disaster and climate risk planning, urban development, and education. Scenarialogi emphasizes transparent assumptions and critical examination of uncertainties, while acknowledging the limits of qualitative storytelling. It is usually used in combination with quantitative models and other forecasting tools to enhance resilience and adaptive capacity.