horisontskanning

Horisontskanning is a systematic, ongoing process for identifying early signs of developments that could affect an organization or society in the medium to long term. The aim is to reduce strategic surprise by informing policy making, planning, and decision making. It focuses on signals of change rather than precise predictions, recognizing uncertainty and the need to prepare for a range of possible futures.

The process typically includes scoping the domains to monitor, collecting information from a wide range of sources, and detecting weak signals that may indicate emerging trends. Signals are then filtered, analyzed, and interpreted to assess potential implications, interdependencies, and time horizons. Findings are synthesized into actionable insights and communicated to decision makers. Common methods used in horisontskanning include environmental scanning, Delphi surveys, trend analysis, scenario planning, expert panels, and technology roadmapping. The approach emphasizes horizon thinking and the use of diverse perspectives to build a more robust view of the future.

Applications of horisontskanning span public sector and private sector contexts, including health system planning, national security and defense, environmental policy, technology and innovation policy, and corporate strategy. It supports risk management, resilience building, and strategic investments by highlighting emerging opportunities and potential threats. Limitations include inherent uncertainty, potential biases in signal selection and interpretation, resource demands, and challenges in translating insights into concrete actions. It is often used in combination with other foresight activities, such as impact assessment and strategic scenario development, to inform long-term planning and policy development.