gevolgscenarios

Gevolgscenarios, also known as impact scenarios, are structured descriptions of plausible future states for a system that result from specific drivers, events, or policy choices. They focus on the consequences of developments rather than predicting a single outcome, and they may combine qualitative narratives with quantitative estimates.

A typical gevolgsscenario describes the scope and boundaries of the system (such as a city, sector, or ecosystem), identifies relevant drivers (climate change, technological change, demographics, regulatory changes), and outlines potential direct and indirect effects. Consequences can be economic, social, environmental, infrastructural, or health-related, and are estimated over a defined time horizon and spatial scale. Scenarios may include indicators such as costs, disruption duration, service levels, or ecological impact, and they often document underlying assumptions and uncertainties.

Methodologically, gevolgscenarios employ a mix of approaches. Qualitative storytelling helps capture complex interactions and stakeholder perspectives, while quantitative models, simulations, or risk assessments provide numbers for comparison. Tools such as scenario trees, system dynamics, GIS analyses, or Monte Carlo simulations are commonly used to explore ranges of outcomes and to test sensitivity to key drivers.

Applications of gevolgscenarios include climate adaptation planning, disaster and resilience drills, infrastructure and urban planning, and policy evaluation. They support decision-making under uncertainty by highlighting potential worst-case, best-case, and middle-ground outcomes and by clarifying trade-offs among alternative strategies. Challenges include data gaps, uncertainty, and communicating results clearly to stakeholders.