foretellingforecasting

Foretellingforecasting is a term used to describe the integration of foretelling and forecasting in futures studies and risk assessment. It combines the qualitative, narrative-informed aspects of foretelling with the quantitative, model-driven approaches of forecasting to produce predictions, scenarios, and assessments of future events.

Foretelling historically refers to prophecy, divination, or revelation about the future, often expressed as narratives or signs. Forecasting refers to systematic prediction based on data, statistics, and models. In practice, foretellingforecasting encompasses methods that blend these traditions. Examples include expert elicitation and scenario planning, where qualitative judgments shape model assumptions; narrative forecasting, where projected futures are described in story form to aid planning; and hybrid models that incorporate qualitative risk factors into quantitative forecasts.

Techniques commonly used include Delphi panels, Bayesian updating, time-series and econometric models, machine learning, and simulation with narrative scenarios. The aim is to improve relevance and communication while acknowledging uncertainty. Proponents argue that combining narrative context with quantitative rigor can reveal overlooked risks and improve decision support, while critics caution that the approach may amplify biases and reduce falsifiability if not applied rigorously.

Applications span meteorology, economics, public policy, disaster risk management, and corporate strategy. Foretellingforecasting emphasizes transparent communication of uncertainty, explicit scenario assumptions, and ongoing model updating. See also forecasting, prophecy, scenario planning, predictive analytics, futures studies, and expert elicitation.