Riskilaskenta

Riskilaskenta (risk calculation) refers to the systematic process of identifying, measuring, and evaluating risks in order to inform decision-making. It is used across finance, insurance, project management, safety engineering, and IT security, among other fields. The goal is to understand the likelihood and potential impact of adverse events and to prioritize responses according to an organization’s risk appetite.

The process typically includes risk identification, qualitative and quantitative assessment, risk evaluation, treatment or mitigation, and ongoing monitoring. Common tools include risk matrices that map probability against impact, and quantitative methods such as probabilistic modeling, Monte Carlo simulation, and scenario analysis. Financial applications often rely on metrics like Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall, while operational and project risks may be evaluated with fault tree analysis and event tree analysis.

Outputs of risk calculation include risk registers, dashboards, and risk appetite statements. Decisions based on riskilaskenta may involve choosing controls, transferring risk through insurance or contracts, or accepting residual risk within defined limits. Regular review aligns risk treatment with changing conditions and business objectives.

Riskilaskenta aligns with international risk management standards such as ISO 31000, which emphasize structured processes, governance, and continual improvement. Limitations of risk calculation include model risk, data quality and availability, uncertain inputs, and the challenge of capturing tail risks or highly rare events. Ethical and governance considerations are also relevant when modeling sensitive or strategic risks.