Risikosprang

Risikosprang is a term used in risk assessment and risk management to describe a sudden and substantial increase in risk exposure that occurs with relatively small changes in underlying conditions. It reflects nonlinearity in systems where gradual shifts can trigger abrupt transformations once a threshold or tipping point is reached, or where interdependencies cause cascading effects across components.

Causes and mechanisms include tipping points in ecological, technological, or financial systems; cascading failures in interconnected networks; sudden changes in correlations or liquidity; and nonlinear risk amplification where extreme events dominate outcomes.

Examples can occur in financial markets when a liquidity dry-up abruptly increases volatility and losses, in supply chains where a single disruption cascades through suppliers, or in climate risk where incremental warming pushes systems past resilience limits, leading to extreme events.

Assessment and detection rely on scenario analysis, stress testing, sensitivity analysis, and monitoring of early warning indicators such as threshold crossings, increasing correlations, or rising tail risk metrics.

Mitigation focuses on reducing interdependencies, increasing redundancy and modularity, diversifying exposures, implementing robust contingency plans, and using adaptive risk controls and real-time monitoring to slow or dampen potential risikosprang.

See also: tipping point, systemic risk, cascading failure, nonlinear dynamics, risk management.