Driftsbudget

Driftsbudget is a budgeting approach that acknowledges and plans for drift—the gradual deviation of project costs and requirements from initial forecasts. It treats uncertainty as a standard condition of projects and seeks to keep budgets aligned with evolving needs by embedding flexibility into the budgeting process rather than treating deviations as exceptions.

Core concepts include drift detection, rolling or adaptive budgeting, and governance rules. The method relies on data streams such as burn rate, feature throughput, market indicators, and risk signals to trigger budget reallocation. It often uses probabilistic forecasting and scenario planning to anticipate possible directions of drift.

The process typically begins with a baseline budget, followed by the definition of drift indicators and trigger thresholds. An adaptive allocation mechanism creates flexible funding pools or reserve lines that can be tapped as drift materializes. Regular reviews and documentation ensure accountability.

Applications span software development, research and development, and infrastructure programs in organizations facing high uncertainty or frequent scope changes. Driftsbudget is commonly integrated with rolling forecasts and activity-based budgeting to maintain alignment with strategic goals.

Benefits include greater responsiveness, improved alignment of spending with actual needs, and reduced waste. Limitations include added complexity, requirements for reliable data, and governance to prevent opportunistic use of reserves. Critics caution that drift does not always reflect value creation.