tetlock

Philosopher and social scientist Philip E. Tetlock is known for his work on forecasting and expert judgment. Born in 1954, Tetlock earned his Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Berkeley. He is currently a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.

Tetlock's research focuses on the accuracy of expert predictions, particularly in the realms of politics, economics, and international relations. His most notable work is "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?" published in 2005. In this book, Tetlock and his co-authors, John A. Gardner and Dan M. Goldstein, analyzed the predictions of 284 political scientists, economists, and international relations experts over a 20-year period. They found that the accuracy of these experts was no better than chance, a phenomenon they termed "superforecasting."

Tetlock's findings have sparked significant debate in the academic community. Some argue that his methods are flawed, while others praise his work for challenging the notion of expert infallibility. Tetlock's research has also been applied to other fields, such as medicine and business, to assess the reliability of expert judgment.

In addition to his academic work, Tetlock is a frequent public speaker and has written for various publications, including The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. He is also the author of "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," published in 2015, which explores the factors that contribute to accurate forecasting.