Superforecasting
Superforecasting is a term coined by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner in their 2015 book of the same name. It refers to the practice of making remarkably accurate predictions about future events, often far beyond what is considered normal. Superforecasters are individuals who consistently outperform experts and statistical models in their predictions, particularly in domains like geopolitics, economics, and social trends.
Tetlock's research, which formed the basis of the book, involved a large-scale forecasting tournament where participants
Key traits attributed to superforecasters include a commitment to breaking down complex problems into smaller, manageable