Superforecasting

Superforecasting is a term coined by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner in their 2015 book of the same name. It refers to the practice of making remarkably accurate predictions about future events, often far beyond what is considered normal. Superforecasters are individuals who consistently outperform experts and statistical models in their predictions, particularly in domains like geopolitics, economics, and social trends.

Tetlock's research, which formed the basis of the book, involved a large-scale forecasting tournament where participants were asked to make predictions on a variety of global events. The individuals who emerged as superforecasters shared several key characteristics. They tended to be open-minded, intellectually curious, and willing to update their beliefs in the face of new evidence. They also embraced a probabilistic approach to thinking, viewing events not as certainties but as a spectrum of possibilities with associated likelihoods.

Key traits attributed to superforecasters include a commitment to breaking down complex problems into smaller, manageable parts, a rigorous search for relevant information, and a willingness to consider opposing viewpoints. They are adept at identifying and mitigating cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias and overconfidence. Furthermore, superforecasters are described as being deeply engaged with the world, constantly learning and refining their understanding of how events unfold. Their success is not attributed to innate talent alone but rather to a disciplined and systematic approach to thinking about the future.