Superforecasters

Superforecasters are individuals who demonstrate a consistently superior ability to make accurate predictions about future events, particularly in geopolitical and economic matters. The term was popularized by Philip Tetlock, a professor of psychology and political science, and his research team through their Good Judgment Project. This project involved a series of forecasting tournaments that recruited and tested thousands of amateur forecasters.

Tetlock's research found that superforecasters were not necessarily experts in the fields they were predicting. Instead, they possessed certain cognitive styles and approaches. These include a strong propensity for updating their beliefs in light of new evidence, a willingness to consider multiple perspectives, and an ability to think probabilistically. They tend to be humble, open-minded, and diligent in their information gathering and analysis.

Superforecasters often operate by breaking down complex problems into smaller, more manageable parts. They are comfortable with uncertainty and express their judgments in terms of precise probabilities rather than vague statements. Their accuracy significantly surpasses that of average individuals and even many professional intelligence analysts. The findings suggest that accurate forecasting is a skill that can be cultivated through practice and specific cognitive strategies. The insights gained from studying superforecasters have implications for improving decision-making in various domains, from business and government to personal finance.