szcenárióelemzés

Scenario analysis, known as "szcenárióelemzés" in Hungarian, is a strategic planning method used to explore and understand potential future situations. It involves developing a set of plausible future scenarios, each representing a distinct set of circumstances that could unfold. The primary goal is to move beyond single-point predictions and acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of the future.

The process typically begins by identifying key driving forces that are likely to shape the future, such as technological advancements, political shifts, economic trends, and social changes. These drivers are then combined in various ways to create a limited number of distinct, yet plausible, future worlds or scenarios. Each scenario is fleshed out with details about its implications for a particular organization, industry, or issue.

Once scenarios are developed, they are used to test existing strategies and identify potential risks and opportunities. By examining how a strategy performs under different future conditions, decision-makers can identify weaknesses and develop more robust and adaptable plans. Scenario analysis encourages flexible thinking and helps organizations prepare for a range of eventualities, rather than being caught off guard by unforeseen events. It is a valuable tool for risk management, strategic foresight, and fostering resilience in the face of uncertainty.