szcenárióanalízis

Scenario analysis, known as szcenárióanalízis in Hungarian, is a strategic planning method used to explore and understand potential future situations. It involves developing a set of plausible future scenarios based on key uncertainties and driving forces that could shape the environment in which an organization operates. The primary goal is not to predict the future with certainty, but rather to anticipate a range of possible futures and to prepare for them.

The process typically begins with identifying the critical uncertainties and trends relevant to a particular decision or strategic question. These factors are then combined to create distinct, internally consistent scenarios, often ranging from optimistic to pessimistic outcomes, or focusing on different potential pathways. Each scenario describes a plausible future state, outlining how the identified uncertainties might unfold and interact.

Once scenarios are developed, their implications are analyzed. This involves examining how each scenario might affect the organization's objectives, strategies, and operations. The insights gained from this analysis help in identifying potential risks and opportunities, testing the robustness of current strategies, and developing more resilient plans. Scenario analysis encourages flexible thinking and can lead to the identification of proactive measures that can be taken regardless of which scenario ultimately materializes. It is a valuable tool for decision-making in complex and uncertain environments.