scenarier

Scenarier is the plural form of scenario in several Scandinavian languages, including Norwegian, Danish and Swedish. It refers to imagined sequences of events or conditions used for analysis, planning, forecasting and storytelling. The term is widely used in business, government and academia to explore potential futures and to communicate them clearly.

Origin and use: The concept of planning with scenarios dates to the mid-20th century, with significant development in corporate and public policy contexts through Shell’s scenario planning in the 1960s. Scenarier help decision-makers consider uncertainty, test strategies, and present plausible futures to stakeholders, avoiding overreliance on a single forecast.

Types and purposes: Scenarier can be descriptive narratives or quantitative projections. Common types include baseline (most likely), optimistic or best-case, pessimistic or worst-case, and alternative scenarios that stress specific drivers such as economic growth, technology, regulation or climate. They are used for risk assessment, strategic planning, contingency planning and policy analysis, and to compare the implications of different assumptions.

Methods: Development combines qualitative and quantitative approaches. Core activities include identifying driving factors, brainstorming, cross-impact analysis, morphological analysis and, where appropriate, probabilistic modeling. Scenario work emphasizes coherence and plausibility rather than exact prediction, often yielding narrative scenarios supported by data and indicators.

Usage beyond planning: In culture and media, scenarier may also refer to plot outlines and story arcs used in film, theatre or game design, where the scenarios guide development and pacing.