riskvary

Riskvary is a conceptual framework in risk management that emphasizes the deliberate variation of input risk parameters to explore how outcomes respond to changes in assumptions. The name merges risk with variation, signaling a methodology that treats uncertainty not as a single set of inputs but as a family of scenarios.

Core ideas include identifying key risk drivers (probability distributions, correlations, loss severities, time horizons) and applying a systematic variation mechanism, such as sensitivity analyses, scenario trees, or stochastic perturbations. Practitioners define a baseline model and then generate alternative configurations — from mild to extreme — to test model stability and decision robustness. Outputs are typically aggregate risk metrics (expected loss, VaR, CVaR) or portfolio/strategy performance under different regimes.

Riskvary is used across domains. In finance, it supports stress testing and robust portfolio optimization under regime changes. In insurance, it helps price risk under evolving claim patterns. In supply chain and cybersecurity, it assesses resilience by simulating disruptions and attacker behaviors. The approach highlights the sensitivity of conclusions to modeling choices and helps reveal hidden dependencies.

Limitations include computational load, the need for disciplined scenario design to avoid bias, and the risk of overwhelming decision-makers with excessive results. When applied thoughtfully, riskvary complements traditional risk assessment by exposing how conclusions might shift under different, plausible futures.