risikoforløp

Risikoforløp refers to the sequence of events or circumstances that can lead to a negative outcome or loss. It is a concept used in risk management to analyze and understand how potential risks might materialize. A risikoforløp typically involves a trigger event, a series of escalating factors, and finally, the realization of the risk, resulting in an adverse consequence.

Identifying and understanding risikoforløp is crucial for developing effective risk mitigation strategies. By mapping out the potential pathways a risk can take, organizations can anticipate weaknesses and implement controls at various stages to prevent or minimize the impact. This involves not only identifying the initial trigger but also considering contributing factors and the chain reactions they might set off.

For example, in a financial context, a risikoforløp for market volatility might begin with a geopolitical event, leading to investor uncertainty, followed by a sell-off in equities, and ultimately resulting in portfolio losses. In an operational context, a risikoforløp for a system failure could start with a software bug, followed by insufficient testing, leading to a critical error during peak usage, and culminating in service disruption.

The analysis of risikoforløp often involves scenario planning and the use of tools like fault tree analysis or event tree analysis to visualize and quantify potential outcomes. The goal is to move beyond simply identifying risks to understanding the dynamics of how they can unfold, enabling more proactive and robust risk management practices.