poll

Poll refers to a method of gathering information by asking a sample of people about their opinions, beliefs, or experiences. Polls are widely used in politics, journalism, marketing, and social science to estimate the views of a larger population from a subset of respondents.

Design and sampling: A poll begins with a defined population and a sampling frame. Respondents are selected using probability methods (random, stratified, or cluster sampling) or nonprobability methods (online panels, convenience samples). The aim is a representative cross-section, though exact representativeness varies by method.

Question design and data collection: Questions should be clear and neutral. Data may be collected by telephone, face-to-face interviews, mail, or online questionnaires. Results are reported as percentages and often include a margin of error and a confidence level to express sampling uncertainty. Data are commonly weighted to reflect population characteristics.

Types: Public opinion polls measure broad attitudes; tracking polls monitor changes over time; exit polls collect data as voters leave polling places on election day; benchmark polls establish a baseline; push polls are designed to influence opinions. Formats include online, telephone, and in-person polling; some polls are probabilistic while others rely on nonprobability samples.

Limitations and interpretation: Poll results are subject to sampling error, nonresponse bias, question wording effects, and mode effects. They indicate likely proportions rather than exact counts and can be affected by timing and sponsor biases. Proper interpretation considers method, sample size, weighting, and margin of error.

History and impact: Modern polling dates to the early 20th century with organizations such as Gallup and Pew Research Center. Polling informs media coverage, policy debates, and campaign strategy, but forecasts are not guarantees and results should be read as probabilistic estimates.