Polls

Polls are structured surveys designed to measure opinions, attitudes, or behaviors of a population. They are widely used in politics, journalism, and market research to gauge public sentiment on issues such as elections, policy, or consumer trends.

Polls rely on samples drawn from the target population. The goal is to select a representative subset so findings generalize to the whole. Methods include probability sampling, such as random-digit dialing or address-based sampling, and, in some cases, online panels that are non-probability based. Sample size and mode influence results; national political polls typically interview around 1,000 to 1,500 respondents, using online or telephone modes. Question design should be clear, neutral, and non-leading.

Results carry an uncertainty measure called the margin of error and a confidence level, commonly 95%. The margin reflects sampling variation under ideal conditions; non-sampling errors—nonresponse, coverage gaps, or biased question wording—can be larger. Different organizations may report different results due to weighting, frames, timing, or mode. Timing matters: polls early in a process may not reflect later shifts.

History and uses: Modern polling developed in the early 20th century with figures like George Gallup and Elmo Roper, who promoted representative sampling. Polls support political forecasting, policy discussions, and market research, and exit polls seek voter choices at polling places. Tracking polls monitor changes over time.

Ethics and limitations: Polls depend on voluntary participation and require safeguards for privacy and transparent methodology. Limitations include sampling bias, nonresponse, and the influence of question wording. Poll results should be interpreted cautiously and considered alongside other information.