horisontscanning

Horisontscanning, or horizon scanning, is a systematic approach to identifying and assessing potential future developments that could affect an organization, government program, or society at large. The aim is to illuminate weak signals, emerging trends, and disruptive changes across a broad range of domains so decision-makers can anticipate risks and opportunities and adapt strategies accordingly. Horisontscanning typically looks beyond the near term, focusing on the medium to long-term horizons of five to twenty years, though some programs extend further.

The process usually involves scanning diverse information sources, organizing insights into drivers of change (technological, political, economic, social, environmental, legal), and collecting weak signals that may foretell significant shifts. Methods include trend analysis, STEEP or PESTLE analyses, scenario planning, Delphi panels, and expert workshops. Outputs often take the form of horizon scan reports, summaries of key drivers and emerging issues, scenario narratives, and recommended strategic actions or research priorities.

Applications span public policy, corporate strategy, security, public health, and research and development. By informing foresight, risk management, and strategic planning, horisontscanning helps organizations prepare for uncertainty, allocate resources, and catalyze innovation.

Limitations include uncertainty inherent in long-term forecasts, potential biases in signal selection, and resource demands. It is most effective when integrated with other foresight practices such as scenario planning and strategic roadmapping, and when outputs are actively translated into decision-making processes.