futurologia

Futurology is the systematic study of the future, focusing on possible, probable, and preferable developments across technology, society, economy, environment, and governance. It aims to understand drivers of change, assess uncertainties, and describe scenarios that can inform decision-making, rather than to forecast a single inevitable outcome. The field emphasizes that the future is contingent and shaped by choices made today. In Spanish, the term futurología is commonly used to refer to the same practice.

Methods commonly used in futurology include horizon scanning to identify emerging developments, trend analysis to detect trajectories, scenario planning to explore multiple plausible futures, Delphi surveys to elicit expert judgment, backcasting to define preferred end-states, and quantitative modelling. It is interdisciplinary by design, drawing on demography, economics, technology studies, climatology, political science, sociology, and anthropology. Distinctions are often made between forecasting of near-term trends and longer-term scenario work intended to illuminate policy options and strategic risks.

Modern futurology emerged in the 20th century with the growth of systems thinking and technology assessment. Thinkers such as Herman Kahn and institutions like the RAND Corporation helped develop structured thinking about possible futures, while Shell’s scenario planning in the 1960s–1970s popularized the method for business strategy. The Club of Rome and other foresight initiatives broadened attention to global challenges and sustainability.

Futurology is used in policy planning, corporate strategy, urban and regional development, and risk assessment. It faces criticism for uncertainty, methodological disagreements, and the risk of overconfidence in models, but it remains a widely employed tool for exploring alternatives and preparing for change.