futurestudy

Futurestudy, commonly referred to as futures studies or foresight, is an interdisciplinary field that examines possible, probable, and desirable futures and how present choices influence those futures. Its aim is to expand foresight in decision making by exploring drivers of change, uncertainties, and alternative scenarios. Practices involve analyzing trends, signals of change, and systemic interactions across technology, environment, economy, and society to inform policy, strategy, and personal planning.

Historically, futures thinking emerged in the mid-20th century through think tanks and research groups such as RAND and the World Future Society, evolving into formal programs at universities and research institutes. The field today encompasses a range of methods and perspectives and is used by governments, businesses, non-profits, and civil society organizations.

Common methods include horizon scanning, trend analysis, scenario planning, backcasting, Delphi surveys, cross-impact analysis, and weak signal detection. Participants may work in workshops to develop plausible future scenarios, assess policy implications, and identify strategic options. Outputs often take the form of foresight reports, scenario descriptions, roadmaps, and policy recommendations.

Critiques of future study discuss its inherent uncertainty, potential biases, and normative assumptions about desirable futures. Proponents argue it provides structured ways to anticipate disruption, diversify strategies, and align resources with long-term goals.