WhatifAnalysen

WhatifAnalysen are a class of analytical methods used to explore how changes in input variables influence outcomes in a model. They are used in decision support to assess potential futures by constructing alternative scenarios and evaluating their impact on objectives such as revenue, cost, or risk. WhatifAnalysen aim to illuminate the sensitivity of results to uncertain factors and to identify key drivers of outcomes.

Methodologies commonly grouped under WhatifAnalysen include scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, and probabilistic simulation such as Monte Carlo simulation. In practice, analysts define a goal, identify key drivers, create alternative values or distributions for inputs, run the model, and compare results. Tools range from spreadsheet-based models to specialized risk analytics software and programming environments.

Applications span finance and budgeting (evaluating investment or capital plans under different market conditions), operations and supply chain (assessing capacity, demand volatility, or lead times), project management (timeline and cost scenarios), and policy or engineering analyses where uncertain variables affect outcomes. WhatifAnalysen offer a structured way to test hypotheses, compare trade-offs, and support robust decision making.

Data requirements include a transparent model structure, documented assumptions, and justification for input ranges or distributions. Results are typically presented as expected outcomes, uncertainty ranges, and scenario rankings. Limitations include dependence on model validity, data quality, and potential bias in scenario selection. WhatifAnalysen provide insight into risk and flexibility, but do not predict the future; they are most effective when used iteratively with validation and clear decision criteria.