Warmingto

Warmingto is a term used in speculative climate discourse to describe a hypothetical warming trajectory toward a defined target temperature. It is not a recognized term in established climate science, but appears in thought experiments, policy simulations, and climate fiction as a way to explore how warming might progress under different assumptions about emissions, feedbacks, and human response.

Origin and usage: The coinage exists primarily in informal discussions and educational materials; it is sometimes presented as a contrast to more common trajectory labels such as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Warmingto emphasizes the momentum of warming toward a target, rather than specifying a fixed policy scenario.

Concept and mechanics: In a warmingto scenario, global mean surface temperature gradually increases toward a chosen target, with feedbacks that can either moderate or intensify the pace. Proponents use it to illustrate how delayed mitigation or abrupt tipping points could push warming closer to the target sooner than expected, while early and aggressive mitigation could slow the approach. It is often used as a pedagogical tool to discuss uncertainty, adaptation needs, and the nonlinear nature of climate response.

Status and critique: Because the term lacks formal definition and peer-reviewed treatment, interpretations of warmingto vary widely. Critics argue that its vagueness risks conflating everyday language with model trajectories and could confuse policymakers. Proponents view it as a movable, exploratory concept useful for communicating risk and uncertainty.

See also: Global warming, Climate trajectory, Tipping point, Climate models, Policy scenarios.