Scenarietænkning

Scenarietænkning, often translated as scenario planning or scenario thinking, is a strategic planning method used by organizations and individuals to explore and prepare for potential future developments. It involves constructing plausible narratives about how the future might unfold, considering a range of uncertainties and driving forces. The core idea is not to predict the future with certainty, but rather to develop a deeper understanding of possible futures and their implications.

The process typically begins with identifying key uncertainties and trends that are likely to shape the future. These might include technological advancements, political shifts, economic changes, or social movements. Once identified, these elements are combined in different ways to create a set of distinct, internally consistent scenarios. Each scenario represents a plausible future state, often characterized by a "storyline" that explains how the driving forces interact.

By developing these scenarios, organizations can test their existing strategies against a variety of potential futures. This helps to identify potential vulnerabilities and opportunities. It encourages flexibility and adaptability, as decision-makers are better prepared for a wider range of outcomes. Scenarietænkning is not about forecasting, but about fostering a proactive and resilient approach to strategic decision-making in the face of an unpredictable world. It is a tool for learning, discussion, and informed preparation.