Reservrisk

Reservrisk is a term used in risk management and resource economics to denote a composite measure of the uncertainty associated with the adequacy, timing, and reliability of reserves in a given asset or portfolio. It is applicable to geological reserves in oil and gas or minerals, water resources, and to financial reserves within corporate finance, though it is most commonly used in energy industries where reserves underpin investment decisions.

The concept combines reserve estimate uncertainty, price and cost volatility, and operational and regulatory risks into a single risk metric. It is often estimated through probabilistic modelling and scenario analysis, including Monte Carlo simulations, to produce confidence intervals for recoverable reserves and their expected cash flows, typically reported with conventional reference levels such as P90, P50, and P10.

Reservrisk encompasses several components, including the uncertainty of reserve volumes, projected production profiles, price trajectories, development and operating costs, geopolitical or regulatory changes, technological progress, and reliability of data. It is used in capital budgeting, asset valuation, risk-adjusted performance measurement, and portfolio optimization, helping managers compare assets and allocate capital under uncertainty.

Limitations include dependence on data quality and model assumptions, the challenge of forecasting long-term prices, and the potential for model risk. Reservrisk should be used in conjunction with scenario planning and stress testing rather than as a standalone predictor. Related concepts include reserve life indices, reserve replacement ratios, and risk-adjusted metrics such as the risk-adjusted return on capital.