Päätöisanalyysi

Päätöisanalyysi, also known as decision analysis, is a systematic approach to making optimal decisions under conditions of uncertainty. It involves breaking down complex decisions into smaller, more manageable components, identifying possible outcomes, assessing their probabilities, and evaluating the potential consequences of each choice. The core of decision analysis lies in quantifying subjective beliefs and preferences into a coherent framework that allows for rational comparison of alternatives.

The process typically begins with defining the decision problem clearly, including the objectives and constraints. Next, a decision tree or similar model is constructed to represent the sequence of decisions and chance events. Probabilities are assigned to uncertain events, often based on expert judgment, historical data, or statistical modeling. Utilities, which represent the decision-maker's preferences for different outcomes, are then assigned to terminal nodes of the decision tree. By calculating the expected utility for each alternative path, decision analysis aims to identify the strategy that maximizes the decision-maker's overall expected satisfaction or value.

Tools and techniques used in decision analysis include expected value calculations, sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation. Sensitivity analysis helps to understand how changes in input variables affect the decision outcome, identifying critical factors. Monte Carlo simulation allows for the modeling of complex systems with many uncertain variables, providing a distribution of possible outcomes. Decision analysis is applied in various fields such as business, finance, engineering, healthcare, and public policy to improve the quality and consistency of decision-making when faced with risk and uncertainty.