Premortems

Premortems are structured foresight exercises in which a team imagines a project or initiative has already failed and then works backward to identify possible causes, warning signs, and actionable mitigations. The goal is to surface critical risks and assumptions before execution, enabling proactive planning.

The term and method were popularized by psychologist Gary Klein in the 1990s and early 2000s, though similar techniques have long appeared in risk assessment. Today premortems are used in business, product development, software projects, strategic planning, and government programs to improve decision quality and resilience.

Typically, a premortem involves selecting a scope, setting a failure scenario and time horizon, inviting participants, and writing down reasons the project could fail as if it already happened. Then teams discuss each reason, estimate likelihood, identify early indicators, assign owners, and derive concrete mitigations, milestones, and triggers.

Benefits include uncovering hidden assumptions, improving risk awareness, aligning stakeholders, and generating actionable mitigations. Limitations may include bias, dominance by vocal participants, time costs, and the risk of creating a pessimistic culture if not facilitated carefully. It complements but does not replace ongoing risk management.

Premortems can be conducted in short workshops or integrated into planning cycles, and some variants mix with post-mortems for lessons learned after failure. For effective results, they require psychological safety, a skilled facilitator, and a clear integration of findings into the project plan.