premortem

Premortem is a planning technique used in project management and product development. It asks a team to imagine that a project has failed at a future date and to brainstorm plausible reasons for that failure. The goal is to surface hidden risks and assumptions before work begins, thereby improving risk assessment and contingency planning. The term was popularized by Gary Klein, who described premortems as a proactive counterpart to postmortems, which analyze failures after they occur.

In a typical premortem session, the team defines the project's objective and expected success criteria, then envisions a specific future time when the project has failed. Participants individually generate reasons for the failure, which are then shared and collated. The team discusses and clusters risks by likelihood and impact, identifies early warning signs, and develops actions to prevent or mitigate the most credible threats. Responsibilities are assigned for implementing preventative measures, and the results are documented for future reference.

Premortems are commonly used at project kickoffs or major decision points and can accompany agile planning, strategic initiatives, or product launches. Benefits include surfacing assumptions that may be false, reducing overconfidence, improving team alignment, and expanding contingency plans. Potential drawbacks include fostering pessimism if not facilitated carefully, the risk of superficial analysis without disciplined follow-through, and reliance on participants' candor.

See also: postmortem, risk assessment, scenario planning.