Otsustusanalüüside

Otsustusanalüüside refer to the systematic evaluation of decisions under uncertainty to select among alternatives. The term is Estonian, with otsustusanalüüs as the singular and otsustusanalüüside as the plural. The field draws on statistics, operations research, economics, and decision theory and is applied in business, public policy, health care, and environmental planning.

Core concepts include framing a decision problem, listing alternatives, specifying criteria (such as cost, benefit, risk), modelling uncertainties, and incorporating preferences or utilities. Analysts use models that link choices to outcomes and employ tools such as decision trees and influence diagrams to represent decisions and dependencies. Multi-criteria decision analysis helps integrate multiple goals, while quantitative methods—such as expected value or expected utility calculations, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis—support comparisons under uncertainty. Bayesian approaches and adaptive decision making are used when information evolves over time.

The typical process involves defining the decision problem, identifying alternatives and criteria, collecting or estimating data, building a formal model, running analyses, interpreting results, and communicating recommendations. Otsustusanalüüsid are generally prescriptive, aiming to improve decision quality, but they also interact with human judgment and risk attitudes.

Applications are broad, including capital investment, policy appraisal, risk assessment, health technology assessment, environmental management, and strategic planning. The discipline emphasizes transparency, robustness of conclusions, and clear communication to stakeholders, while acknowledging limitations such as data gaps, model assumptions, and potential biases.