Lagekans

Lagekans is a Dutch term meaning low probability. In risk assessment and planning contexts, it describes events that have a small likelihood of occurring within a defined time frame or scenario, even if their potential impact is significant. The concept is often used to separate risks into categories such as lagekans (low probability) and hoge kans (high probability) to help allocate attention and resources.

In practice, lagekans refers to events whose probability is low but not zero, and whose consequences may be large. Risk is commonly framed as the product of probability and impact, so lagekans events are treated as part of the tail of the risk distribution. In risk matrices, such events are placed in low-probability zones, with emphasis on monitoring signals, early warning indicators, and contingency planning rather than routine controls.

Estimating lagekans relies on historical data, statistical models, expert judgment, and scenario analysis. Because such events are rare, estimates carry high uncertainty and are sensitive to model assumptions and data quality. Therefore, risk managers often supplement quantitative estimates with qualitative scenarios and stress tests to explore potential consequences.

Examples of lagekans events include extreme natural disasters in a given region, rare but high-impact cyber incidents, or unprecedented systemic shocks to supply chains. While unlikely in any given period, these events require preparedness through resilience, business continuity planning, and insurance considerations to mitigate potential harm.

See also: risk assessment, low-probability/high-impact events, scenario planning.