Ecoscenarios

An ecoscenario is a structured, plausible description of how an ecosystem or set of ecosystems might change in the future under different drivers and management choices. They are used to explore potential states of ecological systems and the services they provide, including biodiversity, carbon storage, pollination, water purification, and recreation. Ecoscenarios combine ecological knowledge with social, economic, or policy drivers to illuminate possible trajectories rather than to predict a single outcome.

Ecoscenarios can be qualitative, using narrative storylines that outline sequences of events and responses, or quantitative, built from ecological models, species distribution models, population viability analyses, or dynamic vegetation models linked to climate, land-use, and management data. Often they are produced through participatory processes with researchers, practitioners, and stakeholders to incorporate local knowledge and values. Scenarios may vary by driver intensity (e.g., climate change, habitat loss, invasive species) and management actions (conservation, restoration, policy changes).

They are used to assess risks and resilience, test conservation strategies, plan land use, and communicate uncertainties to decision makers. Outputs include maps of habitat suitability, projections of species richness, ecosystem service flows, and recommendations for adaptation measures. They can be applied at multiple scales from local reserves to regional landscapes and across timescales spanning decades to centuries.

Limitations include data gaps, uncertainties in ecological responses, and model simplifications. Ecoscenarios complement other planning tools such as scenario planning, biodiversity assessments, and climate projections. They align with broader frameworks in ecology and environmental policy to support proactive, flexible management.