10JahresRisikos

10JahresRisikos, commonly written as the 10-Jahres-Risiko in German-language medical literature, is the estimated probability that a defined adverse health event will occur within the next ten years for an individual. It is an absolute risk measure used in clinical risk assessment, most often for cardiovascular events such as heart attack or stroke, but the general concept can apply to other diseases as well.

Calculation of a 10-year risk relies on risk models that combine demographic and clinical factors. Typical inputs include age, sex, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol levels, smoking status, and diabetes status, with some models incorporating body mass index, family history, or ethnicity. The resulting percentage reflects the likelihood of the event in the coming decade given the person’s current risk-factor profile. Because risk factors can change, the 10-year risk is a dynamic measure that can decrease or increase with lifestyle changes or medical treatment.

Use of the 10-year risk is common in preventive medicine. Clinicians use it to guide decisions about therapies such as lipid-lowering or antihypertensive medications and to communicate the seriousness of risk to patients. At the population level, average 10-year risks help inform public health priorities and screening programs.

Limitations of the concept include reliance on models calibrated to specific populations, which may lead to misestimation in other groups. Most models do not account for competing risks (such as death from non-cardiovascular causes), genetic factors, or non-modifiable risks. They also provide a snapshot based on current risk factors and may not reflect lifetime risk or changes over time.