tilbakekasting

Tilbakekasting, or backcasting, is a method used in futures studies and sustainability planning. It starts from a defined, desirable end state in the future and works backward to map the steps, policies, and decisions that would be necessary to reach that state from the present day. It is contrasted with forecasting, which projects current trends forward without prescribing a preferred outcome.

Origin and usage: The concept was popularized in English as backcasting by John B. Robinson in 1982; in Norwegian discourse, the term tilbakekasting is used in policy, planning, and academic literature to describe the same approach. It is commonly applied in climate and energy planning as a way to design pathways to sustainability targets rather than merely predicting future conditions.

Process: The typical process includes (a) defining a coherent, desirable future (e.g., carbon-neutral city by 2050), (b) identifying the essential conditions and transition requirements to realize that future, (c) selecting actions, technologies, and policy instruments that can produce those conditions, (d) mapping a backward sequence of steps and necessary decisions, (e) testing the pathway against uncertainties and stakeholder needs, and (f) implementing and monitoring with iterative revisions.

Applications and criticisms: It is used in energy system planning, urban development, transportation, and corporate strategy to align actions with long-term goals. Critics note that backcasting relies on a credible and shared vision; it can be normative and may underemphasize uncertainties or require willingness to consider improbable futures. It also demands stakeholder engagement and transparent assumptions.