scenarioplanning

Scenarioplanning, or scenario planning, is a strategic planning method used to explore and prepare for a range of plausible future environments rather than predicting a single outcome. It aims to improve decision making, resilience, and long-term flexibility by testing strategies against diverse futures.

The process typically begins with identifying a focal issue or decision and then isolating the major driving forces that could influence it. These drivers are often grouped into categories such as political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and regulatory factors. The next step is to establish scenario logics, usually two or three distinct and coherent future worlds that capture different combinations of drivers. Teams then develop narrative scenarios describing how events unfold, how actors respond, and what conditions prevail in each world. Finally, the implications are examined, including strategic options, potential risks, and early indicators or signposts that would signal a shift toward a given scenario.

History and use have roots in the work of Pierre Wack at Royal Dutch Shell in the 1960s and 1970s, who popularized structured scenario thinking for corporate strategy. The approach gained broader attention through Peter Schwartz’s The Art of the Long View (1991) and has since been applied in business, government, and international organizations to stress-test plans, inform policy, and guide investment under uncertainty.

Scenarioplanning emphasizes exploring multiple futures and thinking critically about assumptions. It is distinct from forecast-based planning and from quantitative risk assessment, and its effectiveness depends on rigorous scenario logic, credible drivers, diverse perspectives, and practical integration into strategic decision processes.